March 11 2008 / by Marisa Vitols
Category: Technology Year: General Rating: 9
A hedge fund manager with expertise in financial markets, trends, and a variety of futurist topics, it’s safe to say that Melanie Swan has a good sense of what’s coming next. In a recent in-depth MemeBox interview, Swan laid out a list of specific predictions for the next year, next five years, and next decade. If you’re looking to strengthen your future simulation, this timeline covers some of the key product releases, technologies, and theories that every futurist should consider.
MV: What are some of the powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next year, by Dec 31, 2008?
- 3d cameras
- Geo-tagged online connected objects
- Early versions of neuroheadsets for gaming
- Increased adoption of personal genomics services
- Growth in data visualization for enterprise and science in virtual worlds
- Telemedicine pilots
- Larger computer and television monitors (substantial increase in total square feet of screens in 2008 vs. 2007)
- Progress in virtual world interoperability and increased migration to OpenSim
MV: What powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next 5 years, by 2013?
- Proof of the existence or non-existence of the Higgs boson
- Google continues to reinvigorate and contribute to the artificial intelligence field
- At least one SARS-type virus or plague has reached a hundred people
- Mediatronic walls available to high-end customers
- Live data streamed into virtual worlds and represented visually is routine
- Augmented reality overlay applications available via mobile phone
- Smart home sensor networks
- Enterprise 3d data visualization
- Virtual worlds start to become an important successor platform to the web for eCommerce
- More heterogeneous passenger vehicles on the road: diesel, hybrid, etc.
- At least one public company has announced their quarterly earnings simultaneously in a virtual world
MV: What are some of the powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next 10 years, by 2018?
- Full rat brain modeled by IBM Blue Brain supercomputing project or others
- Attempted bio-terrorism attacks
- Full human genome scans are available for $1,000 or less
- Large populations of the industrialized world have had their genome partially scanned
- Initial versions of human proteome modeled/sequenced, drug discovery revolves around proteomics in addition to genomics
- Some form of universal socialized healthcare exists in the US
- India, China, Singapore, Dubai, etc. have become hotbeds for specific health/drug/technology development
- There is serious consideration of splitting China into multiple administrative parts
- A few pilot PRT (personal rapid transit) projects have been launched
- Some form of avatar-based navigation for mobile phone eCommerce exists