YouTube Co-Founder Chad Hurley's 10-Year Web Video Market Predictions

September 17 2008 / by Alvis Brigis
Category: Environment   Year: 2018   Rating: 5 Hot

Yesterday, YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley shot off some optimistic predictions about the web video industry. He opined that ten years from now “online video broadcasting will be the most ubiquitous and accessible form of communication.”

I certainly buy that web video broadcasting will be near ubiquitous. Hurley’s reasoning nicely reflects my own:

“The tools for video recording will continue to become smaller and more affordable. Personal media devices will be universal and interconnected. Even more people will have the opportunity to record and share even more video with a small group of friends or everyone around the world.”

But I am not sure that I’m sold on web video as the “most accessible form of communication”.

Why? Not because I think it won’t explode – web video will to be massive by 2018. Rather, I believe it’s possible that some nascent comm technology may just zoom past web video during that span, or more likely, subsume it.

In particular, I am very big on the potential of BCIs and Virtual Worlds, and think either or both could diffuse more quickly as the emphasis shifts from the face more directly to the brain. I can definitely envision a future in which video becomes a sub-component of a more interactive and compelling macro brain-to-brain communication process.

Hurley concludes that “Over the next decade, people will be at the center of their video and media experience. More and more consumers will become creators. We will continue to help give people unlimited options and access to information, and the world will be a smaller place.”

I wholeheartedly agree, but believe that in order for that to happen new virtual, semantic and interface technologies will need to emerge to make it happen. And once they fully emerge (imagine Second Life in 2013, or the fourth generation Emotiv headset of 2016), they may just, ironically, steal the show.

Comment Thread (3 Responses)

  1. Nice post. Agree that pure video might not be the sole medium of the future—- and the convergence is certainly more plausible given the co-evolution of 3D systems.

    But do think video will have its day (maybe even a decade) in the spotlight. There is something about enterprise based video communication that shows a lot of promise- as does family to family communication. Grandparents seeing grandchildren – and maybe interacting via 3D overlays. I just think our notion of video will include 3D virtual layers.. I think the telecoms will want video to find its niche so they can keep bandwidth active and in demand!

    I’m watching the bio-interfaces closely—- agree they might be the dark horse…!!

    Posted by: Garry Golden   September 17, 2008
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  2. Don’t you think more and more people will just download TV shows instead of having to watch them through a device? Even free TV shows online are more downloaded than from the site it was free on (did that make sense?).

    Posted by: martymcfly   September 17, 2008
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  3. @ Garry – I totally agree about video having its day. It’s the next step for sure, and will be immensely valuable for distance comm, labor, recreation, socialization, human ability and actualization. Good point that 3D will lumped into video. My main point is just that acceleration could cause a situation in which video reigns (with an iron fist) for an amazingly short burst.

    @ McFly – I def agree that downloads will explode. Google’s Vint Cerf is calling for this to happen in the very near-term. But I think that video-to-video from any point on Earth to another will be immensely huge. I think Hurley’s angle is more about upgrading phone calls to video en mass, but think that there’s also room for super streaming of events all over the globe as well. That being said, by then downloads will transfer so quickly that it will seem like streaming video.

    Posted by: Alvis Brigis   September 17, 2008
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